Words to live by…

Three rules for all humans to live by:

1)  Whenever possible, put on side 2 of Led Zeppelin IV.  Just kidding.  Whenever possible, always assume that the following ten schools will get at least 3-5 extra points on the line based solely on name recognition, large alumni bases that only bet on their school, and historical success:

Florida, Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Alabama, Oklahoma, USC and Florida State. 

And out of that collection, I can’t emphasize Notre Dame, Texas and Alabama enough.  Always subtract 5 points from these three and 3 points from the others and see if the bet still holds water. 

2)  Never go out with a woman who has a tattoo of a dagger on her back.  Seriously though, rule 2 involves rivalries.  Except for neutral field locales, always take the away team.  The combination of stressful fans waiting for the blowout, mind-numbing interviews and family visits plus the inherent expectation of a win will always deter players from focusing on the game itself.  Case in point, Mich-Ohio State this weekend.  I think OSU (-4) is a great bet.

3)  Go out on first dates with the expectation of a blow job.  Always a good rule.  If you get more, spring for breakfast and a cab.  If not, tell her you’ll call her when her sensibilities approach the year 2007.  As it relates to our subject, rule 3 involves BCS possible teams.  Right now there are approximately 15 teams with BCS hopes and each one is trying to win voters as much as games.  Starters will play longer, coaches will gamble and margins of victory will increase.  Take the BCS teams.  You will more than you lose.

Using those three rules, let’s pick some games this week.

Ohio State (-3 1/2) over Michigan.  All three rules apply to this game.  Ohio State, even at -6 1/2 is good, away team, and BCS eligible.  I realize UM could go to the Rose Bowl but I seriously doubt it.  Besides, OSU is a much, much better team that got Zooked last weekend.

Oklahoma (-8 1/2) over Texas Tech.  I may regret this one but I got to see the Texas-Tech game and, despite Mike Leach’s protests (he looks like a squashed, short Vince Gill), Tech was outmanned.  OU is way better than UT plus they have the shithole know as Lubbock figured out.  4-1 in their last 5 ATS at Tech Community College.  Bob Stoops will piss all over this school as they prepare for the Big 12 title game.

Oregon (-11) over Arizona.  Rule 3 applies wholeheartedly here.  With OU, KU and Mizzou on their tails, Oregon needs statement games since the voters comprise 2/3 of the BCS these days.  Dennis Dixon is the Heisman winner should the vote happen today.  Love this game.  Ducks defense is underrated and the under on the 66 total is pretty good too.

NFL:  Cleveland Browns (-3) over Baltimore Ravens.  As my friend Roy knows, Baltimore really sucks this year and didn’t even score but 7 points against the Bengals last week, at home no less.  Ouch.  Brian Billick is on his way out.  A bad coach who caught lightning in a bottle during the Super Bowl year.   

Who’s more pompous, Curt Schilling or Billy Packer?

In the world of sports, I dare ask: Who’s more pompous, Curt Schilling or Billy Packer?  My answer is…Pat Summitt.  Here’s why.  Never in any major collegiate or pro sport (stretching the definition) in the past 50 years has there been a coach more completely dominant than Pat Summitt.  She owns women’s college basketball.  I would take her to coach my kid’s T-Ball team or coach USC’s football team.  She motivates, she recruits 5-star kids even when her bench is full of older 5-star kids, she outcoaches on the court, she gets straight girls to play with lesbos, she wins.  7 national titles in 20 years.  14 Final Fours in 20 years.  That is ridiculous.  In fact, I defy you to legitimately argue that she couldn’t win a national title within 5 years at any SEC football school.  She’s the best coach ever (no, Roy, you can’t throw Anson Dorrance or some swimming coach back at me.  I said major sport.  Even though women’s basketball looks a lot like high school varsity basketball).

Know what else?  She’s arrogant, bitchy, pompous, and as conceited as they come.  I’d rather spend 20 minutes debating union politics or bracketology with Billy Packer or Curt Schilling.

Onto the picks.  As expected, with sniper-like precision, I fired a 3-1 record last week using the Costanza method so I will once again proceed that way.

Oklahoma State (+3) over Texas.  Texas has won 9 straight and owns OSU, their over/under medicated coach (your call), and usually wins in comeback fashion.  This means take Texas, right?  I would normally.  OSU has a big offense and in the last 3 games have held opponents 14 pts per game.

Michigan (-4 1/2) over Michigan State.  Without their stars at full power, you would think Michigan would be toast on the road against a bitter rival in a game that makes MSU bowl eligible.  Not so fast, mon amie.  MSU lost to Iowa last week 34-27.  Iowa.  The same Iowa team that has a whopping 20 players on the DL and actually lost to Iowa State this year.

Navy (+3) over Notre Dame.  Honestly, I can’t Costanza this pick.  I watched Navy play earlier this year and they can score on anyone, especially a Catholic high school team practicing in a large stadium that bans Jews from attending.  Since my wife won’t ever be able to attend a game at ND, we are happy and content to watch Navy crucify ND like Pontius Pilate.

LSU (-7) over Alabama.  Normally, when I’m on the fence about a game and can’t decide, I take the underdog.  Why?  Because if I can’t figure out which team is better then I at least want some points to cushion the outcome.  Clearly, this is not the case here.  LSU is miles farther along than Alabama and John Wilkes Booth once played QB at an Alabama high school, thus completing the serial killer trilogy.

Here’s are Roy’s losers in waiting:

Washington (-2.5) over Stanford (disagree).  Washington gave up 48 points to Arizona last week.  Eeeek.  Anyone Notre Dame alum or fan should look at that next time they regret letting Tyrone Willingham-Tebow go.  Stanford, still researching a way to incorporate GMAT and MCAT scores into the BCS, will cover.

Illinois (-16) over Minnesota (agree).  Minnesota is so bad that the coaches son, Nolan Brewster, a star senior safety in Colorado, is actually committing to another college.  However, UM has produced both Laurence Maroney and Marion Barber in the last three years so the program can be rebuilt.  It just won’t happen today.

Arizona (+3.5) over UCLA (agree).  Same exact logic as Roy, better chicks.  These chicks must enroll sight unseen, though, as Tucson is actually referred to, by name, in the 3rd circle of hell from Dante’s Inferno.  

Georgia (-16.5) over Troy (Disagree).  Georgia rarely blows anyone out and, like Roy, I smell letdown.  What is a Tebow?  We should call everything related to UF ever in Tebow-vernacular as they guy could really use some good press.  Urban Meyer-Tebow is still fuming about last week, as a perpetually undercoached GU team whooped him.  Georgia is talented but young.  Troy is Greek.

As always, keep your Tebow down and your eyes on the ball.

Wildfires, real estate, earthquakes, and Britney?

To answer last week’s question, my sister took neither option as she did not get the job as Queen Noor’s lackey or in the eco-terrorism advertising agency.  She is an analyst at some investment firm in NYC.  Yes, she’s that multi-talented. 

Why does anyone live in California?  Only two aspects of life there are appealing (and yes, I lived in Hermosa Beach for two years), the Pacific Ocean and the weather.  Rather than wax  fanatic about the ills of life there, I thought a list would suffice.

1.  Traffic

2.  Real Estate Prices

3.  Smog

4.  State Income Tax

5. The eastern part of the state is mostly desert.

6.  Schwarznegger is governor… a true barometer of the intelligence of the proletariot in California.  I can just hear his stentorian voice in the Senate saying, “Come to California and see the sights, or things of that nature”

7.  All matter of natural disasters i.e. wildfires, earthquakes, mudslides, Santa Ana windstorms, drought.

8.  Jerry Buss and Art Shell.

I can’t go on.  Needless to say, the state is still overly Democratic which is about the only positive emanating from that stenchpool.  Well, there are also the incredibly hot women.

OK, so last week I went a Constanza-esque 0-4 against the spread and lost both ounces of credibility I ever thought I had.  I could easily explain each game with a plausible excuse but in the end it’s about your checkbook.  Yet, I had a statistical anomaly emerge as I actually bet on Michigan (big) and won despite no Mike Hart and a gimpy Chad Henne.  

So, in honor of George Costanza and my incredibly dismal performance, I am doing the opposite.  I will make my case for my honest pick and then suggest the opposite.

Boston College (+3) over Virginia Tech.  BC is good.   Va Tech is good.  However, when you get two good teams together, I will usually take the team with the better QB because there are fewer mistakes.  Also, Frank Beamer’s goiter scares me. 

Oregon (-3) over USC.  My Heisman pick for the year, Dennis Dixon.  Oregon, without their top runner and receiver, still put up 55 points at Washington last week.  They have one loss and I will take their 2nd ranked offense against USC’s 58th ranked passing defense anytime.  Also, tell me everyone doesn’t experience just a little schadenfruede everytime you see another USC player suck it up in the pros.  Remember Leinart, Jarrett, M. Williams?  You won’t in two years.

South Florida (-5) over UConn.  Wait, this isn’t women’s basketball, right?  UConn has a football team?  Is Geno Auriemma coaching the football team?  If he is, then I’ll take UConn because he’s probably got the best dykes north of Knoxville playing offensive line.  I googled it and apparently, it’s somebody named Randy Edsall.  Is he dating Auriemma?  If so, take UConn.  If not, take USF.

Kansas (-3) over Texas A&M.  If you’ve never been around 80,000 agriculturally devoted Republicans, count your blessings.  If you have, you can get a rabies shot at any local veternarian.  Still, Franchione and his band of future city employees will lose out to a coach who actually watches film and game plans.  Mangino, when he looks at the tape after lighting another candle in his Jared-from-Subway shrine, will notice that A&M couldn’t beat his team with 12 employees, er players.

That’s it.  Remember that during Constanza week (not to be confused with Kwanzaa), take the opposite of my suggestions and laugh yourself all the way to the bank.

Queen Noor…or Eco-terrorist?

My sister lives in New York City with her boyfriend and is currently between mile markers on her resume of life–unemployed.  Weeks of interviews upon interviews, introductions to hundreds of anonymous friends of friends, lunches with recruiters and the net result was, well, nothing. Then, out of the blue, came an offer to be the personal assistant to Queen Noor of Jordan who is forming a philanthropic organization and needs help.  The very next hour produced an offer to partner with a well-received artist specializing in environmental advertising.  Both pay well.  Both have perks.  Both are in midtown.  I’ll keep you posted.

 Last week I went 2-1 to up my record to 4-3 on the season.  My lone loss came when Kentucky lost to S. Carolina after turning it over 12 times.  Probably 4 times, but after the 3rd one, I was so Romo-ed that I lost count.  My friend over at Kermit the Blog was piss-poor (insert link), going 1-3 last week.  Let’s first comment on his picks:

Purdue +7 over Michigan (Disagree.)  Here is the definitive theory on Michigan betting–If I wager actual money on them they lose.  If I speculate randomly, I’ll win.  The last five times, all losses, total $350.  I’m not betting this game, so I’ll win.  Michigan, with Henne back and no pressure, wins big.

Houston -17 over Rice  (Disagree.)  Where were you last week?  On the grassy knoll in Dealey Plaza?  Serial killer John Parker Wilson cannot blow anyone out and Houston was a great bet.  Rice is athletic, well-coached, and easily overlooked.  Plus it has no cholestorol.

Texas Tech -8 over Texas A&M (Disagree.)  Mike Leach is a terrible football coach.  Dennis Franchione is a terrible football coach.  This line is waaaay too big for a pointless game that only matters to folks who pay $1 in property taxes for illegally claiming the agricultural exemption by having livestock on their property.  Wives do not count as livestock.  A&M in a shootout, 48-44.
Missouri +13 over Oklahoma (Agree.)  Not sure about this one.  Typically, Gary Pinkel and Mizzou pull a Philip Fulmer (is he a clone of Fred Dalton Thompson or what–am I right people?) about this time of the year and lose by a shitload in a big game.  Coin flip and it comes up tails, Mizzou covers.

Now for my picks:

Central Florida (+12) over South Florida.  I like Ron Leavitt.  I like South Florida.  I hope to Allah that they win out and play Boston College in the BCS title game.  I hope Gus Johnson and Bill Raftery replace Billy Packer and Jim Nantz at the Final Four as an announcing team.  Not all wishes are granted as USF runs into another underappreciated coach and a stout running game.  It’s a close one.

Cincinnati (-10) over Louisville.  #7in scoring offense, #6 in scoring defense. +31 in scoring difference.  Stats don’t lie, unless your an economist, and this is an easy one.  Root for UC to keep winning, they have an argument as the best team in the nation.

Illinois (-4) over Iowa.  Iowa has won 2 games and even lost to Iowa State.  They have 8 starters out for the year.  Illinois just beat a decent Wisconsin team.  Ron Zook has a player named “Juice” who didn’t slice up his girlfirend and lose a civil suit where he has to surrender his fake Rolex.  On karma alone, take Illinois.

NFL Arizona (-4 1/2) over Carolina.  Vinny Testaverde is starting for Carolina.  Enough said.

Larry Williams says, “Bam!”

First and foremost, I’m the first to admit how underwhelmed I am by my own performance last week.  A moribund 2-2 record certainly merits rattan recliner #6 at the El Cortez sports lounge in Las Vegas, however, it won’t get me far in my pocketbook.  Disappointment pervades as I search frantically for an explanation for Purdue’s mysterious 2nd half collapse and Rutgers pre-’06, Rutgersesque collapse against Maryland.  I will trudge on, desperately hoping to channel Jimmy the Greek or Zorba the Greek or anybody last named ending in “…dakos.”  First, my colleague at Kermit The Blog (http://kermittheblog.wordpress.com/2007/10/04/under-promise-over-deliver/) has made his picks and I’ll let you read his and then I’ll respond.

Kansas State -3 over Kansas.  (Agree).  I was at the Texas-KSU game and we were decidedly outcoached, outplayed, outcheerleaded, outwhiteguyed, outblackguyed, outschemed, outmanuevered, outwitted (not hard) and utterly outasskicked.  KSU is the real deal except for their fans, who despite a valiant effort by their team, still have to drive their purple El Caminos back to Kansas.Alabama (-11) over Houston.  (Disagree).  Houston is better than most and they beat a pretty good East Carolina team coached by Skip Holtz, a decidedly better coach than his father, Lou “let me get the shit out of mouth first” Holtz.  Alabama is the product of one quality win over Auburn albeit with some questionable calls and Major Applewhite is slowly learning that any quarterback addressed by three names probably had serial killers for parents.

Oklahoma (-10.5) over Texas.  (Agree)  My alma mater is experiencing what football experts, in parlance, technically call, “a shitty team.”  Bad, if any, coaching.  Poor, if any, play calling.  Notre Dame-like tackling by the defense.  And, worst of all, a coach that thinks it is no big deal.  As Inigo Montoya would say, “humiliations galore.”

Oklahoma State (+6.5) over Texas A&M.  Who’s the bigger goat right now, Gundy or Franchione?  I’d go with Gundy because OSU just had T. Boone Pickens donate $71 Billion dollars to OSU just for their athletics.  Why?  You could donate $71 Billion to Hakeem Olajuwon’s village in Nigeria and get a better football team plus feed the starving poor, if that were as important as say, I don’t know, having a run defense?  Still, A&M has quit on Franchione and his deer-in-the-headlights look is waaay too reminiscient of the BTK killer. 

My picks, which I really like this week.

Kentucky (+4) over South Carolina.  I know LSU is next weekend but the good thing about UK is they are still playing week to week.  Rich Brooks (who I would love at Texas) is adept at game planning and his enthusiasm is palpable.  Steve Spurrier, who I want to come to one of my staff meetings just so he can throw a clipboard on the ground, is making a mistake switching QB’s mid-season.  A field goal game either way.

Cincinnati (+3) over Rutgers.  Best team in the southern half of Ohio, including the Bengals.  4-0ATS this year.  Rutgers is beginning to emulate Trilby to Greg Schiano’s Svengali, hypnotized into a star and then suddenly awakened to realize, oh wait, we’re Rutgers.    All Du Maurier fans, you’re welcome.

Florida (+8) over LSU.  Two words for you.  Urban Meyer never loses two in a row.  I don’t care if Tim Tebow or Tim Robbins is your QB, Urban Meyer will win.  Candlesticks always make a nice gift.  Truer words have never been spoken.

College Football Picks…I’m Ron Burgundy?

A friend of mine is putting his college football picks up on wordpress.com and, out of sheer adversarial glee, I’ve decided to do likewise.  I’ve won an office pool or two in my day so these picks, unlike his, will actually be based on good judgment and a steel trap of a mind. 

I did steal his font for this post so I will honor him by re-posting his picks as a point of future comparison.  Here is a link to his picks…http://kermittheblog.wordpress.com/2007/09/28/ill-try-i-promise/

 Cal +5.5 over Oregon.  (Disagree)  Coolest play all year was from QB Dennis Dixon over Michigan, a fake Statue-of-Liberty QB keeper.

Oklahoma -22 over Colorado. (Agree).   OU has the most schloastically retarded student body in all of the USA, however, none of the guys coaching the football team attended OU so they are safe.

Florida (-18) over Auburn. (Agree) Can’t argue with this one.  Auburn is, year in year out, the most overrated program in the SEC.  The coach, Tess of the D’Urbervilles, continues to try and pretend they are in the cream of SEC society (just like Tess), however, no one will ever buy it and you can recruit or marry yourself to any recruit you want, Auburn will always be a commoner amongst the elite.

 Michigan (-17) over Northwestern.  (Agree).  Whenever a line looks wrong, worry.  Northwestern just lost to St. Patrick of Kilarney rugby team 63-28 and Michigan just beat a pretty good Penn State team so your initial thought is -17?  Too low?  Don’t second-guess, it is too low.  Take Michigan.

 Now for my picks.

 USF (+7 1/2) over West Virginia.  I could bore you with stats about this or that, unfortunately I don’t know any so I go with my gut and one of the unbreakable tenets of sports betting.   Ranked home underdogs are like Maria Sharapova’s ass…high and tight.  (no correlation).  In other words, take it if you can.  USF is motivated and when you are talking about 18 and 19 year old players and athletic parity, take the motivated kids.

 Rutgers (-19) over Maryland.  Rutgers has scored over 30pts 6 straight games and Ray Rice is the next Emmitt Smith.  Coming off a bye week, Rutgers figured out that without is 100grams of bacon fat each day, Ralph Friedgen’s brain will morph into Bob Davie and Maryland will only run plays that produce negative yards.  Go with Rutgers and the tofu.

 Purdue (-22) over Notre Dame.  Sorry, but Notre Dame is piss poor and to quote my colleague, they are very very very very bad.  I’m not sure why everyone hasn’t already figured this one out but I’ll repeat it.  It’s Bill Belichek. Not Romeo Crennel.  Not Tom Brady.  Not Robert Kraft.  And certainly Not Charlie Weis.  He makes Mack Brown look crafty.  ND will replace him by next year.

 Last one…NFL. 

 Arizona (+5.5) over Pittsburgh.  Tell you why.  Arizona has been in all three games this year even though they are 1-2.  Whisenhunt and Grimm were both up for the Pittsburgh job and, more importantly, Leinart is now on the bench proving once and for all that he was a product of the USC talent, not the other way around.

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